SP10: Climate Modelling

Development and implementation of a hierarchical model chain for modelling regional climate variability and climate change over southern Amazonia

Objectives
Overreaching objective of our subproject is to analyze and model present and future atmospheric processes, boundary layer dynamics and spatiotemporal climate variations in southern Amazonia under different climate and land use scenarios. Assuming interannual and long term variations of precipitation and water budget to be major determinants for the stability, function and resilience of both managed and natural ecosystems in the target area, we will particularly emphasize on a scale-crossing analysis of relationships between hydroclimatic variability, external atmospheric forcings and land use and vegetation cover. Given that the complex interrelations of these impact factors with synoptic and sub-synoptic topographically determined processes are only to be represented by a suite of modelling components, each valid for specific scales and atmospheric processes, we aim to integrate global and regional climate modelling approaches, statistical downscaling and surface parameterization methods within a comprehensive hierarchical model chain. Accordingly, fundamental research issues, to be addressed in our subproject are:

(1) to analyse and model present and future climate (and particularly hydroclimatic) variability in the target area at appropriate spatiotemporal scales
(2) to investigate, assess and quantify the sensitivity of regional weather and climate responses to global climate change and land use change
(3) to provide climatological information for various impact studies in the Carbiocial framework for present and future time slices
Overall, our research aims to contribute to an enhanced understanding of climate system dynamics, its external drivers and internal feedbacks. Moreover, we aim to provide indispensable climate modelling support and data input including uncertainty information for different Carbiocial subprojects, in order to substantiate suitable climate mitigation, adaptation and prevention strategies, elaborated on the example of southern Amazonia but transferable to other world areas with comparable environmental settings.

Please see also the Poster of SP 10 presented at the Kick-Off Workshop in Cuiabá, Brazil, 6-9 July 2011

Project Members
Prof. Dr. Jürgen Böhner
Institute of Geography – Section Physical Geography – University of Hamburg
Prof. Dr. Klaus Fraedrich
MPI-M and Meteorological Institute, University of Hamburg
Dr. Frank Lunkeit
Meteorological Institute – Section Theoretical Meteorology – University of Hamburg
PhD candidate Andre Ringeler
Meteorological Institute – Section Theoretical Meteorology – University of Hamburg
PhD candidate Helge Dietrich
Institute of Geography – Section Physical Geography – University of Hamburg

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